Wednesday, April 21, 2010
By Alan Ting
HULU SELANGOR, April 21 (Bernama) -- Sunday's Hulu Selangor parliamentary by-election is expected to be another litmus test for both the Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat since the Bukit Gantang by-election last May. The stakes are indeed high for both parties.
For the BN, it would be a test of acceptance and acknowledgment of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak and his policies since he took office a year ago.
On the opposition's side, it will be a scrutiny of Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) after a series of high-profile defections from the party of late.
This by-election has been labelled as a contest between a PKR heavyweight in Datuk Zaid Ibrahim against a lightweight from MIC, P. Kamalanathan, who is the party's information chief.
If the PKR's present standing at the national stage is taken into consideration, then perhaps the "on the surface" prognosis may tend to favour Zaid.
But many argue that such an assessment is misplaced or misguided, especially with what PKR had undergone in the last two months when it experienced many desertions.
It is no wonder that DAP veteran Lim Kit Siang had even cautioned the PR parties against over-confidence, sternly reminding them not to dismiss the hard, cold facts from the 2008 general election.
Stressing that the April 25 by-election is not a "sure winner" for PR, he pointed out that the BN had lost the Hulu Selangor parliamentary seat by only a slim majority of 198 votes but had swept all the three state seats within the constituency with large majorities.
The BN took Hulu Bernam with a majority of 3,548 votes, Batang Kali 2,179 votes and Kuala Kubu Baru 448 votes.
In this respect, Lim wondered what had caused the collective majority of 6,175 votes for the BN in the three state seats to turn into a loss of 198 votes for the BN's parliamentary candidate, Datuk G. Palanivel.
The DAP political old-hand reasoned that it was clearly not because the 6,175 voters rooting for BN's state seats had suddenly decided to vote for PKR in the parliamentary contest as the total number of votes for PKR, at 23,388, was only 54 votes more than the total number of votes obtained by PR candidates in Hulu Bernam, Batang kali and Kuala Kubu Bharu, at 23,334 votes.
Lim also dismissed the likelihood of BN's 2008 loss in Hulu Selangor being due to spoilt votes as they numbered on1y 1,466 votes and this figure was not far from the total number of spoilt votes for the three state seats at 1,271 votes.
Palanivel secured 23,190 votes but this was 6,320 votes less than the total number of votes cast for the three BN candidates in the three state seats at 29,510 votes.
Lim said that clearly, more than 6,200 voters in the last general election who voted for the BN at the state level did not vote for Palanivel.
But what is significant is that these voters also did not vote for PR.
So the question is where did these more than 6,200 voters disappear to?
"If 2,000 or 3,000 of these voters come out to vote for the BN on April 25, the BN can win. Hence, all PKR, PAS and DAP leaders and campaigners should realise that the Hulu Selangor by-election is not a sure winner (for PR)," Lim said.
It would appear that Lim's arguments showed that the BN lost in Hulu Selangor in 2008 because the voters were unhappy with Palanivel and not so much the ticket that he had contested on.
Some political analysts also concur with Lim's point. It is also said that the BN would have won Hulu Selangor if not for the split votes, seen most notably among Malay voters since the BN won all the state seats in the parliamentary constituency.
Insiders from PKR's election machinery said that PKR needed to retain the seat was to maintain 45 per cent support from the Malays voters, 70 per cent votes of the Chinese, 50 per cent of the Indian votes and half of the Orang Asli votes.
"If this happens, we can retain the seat with a majority of between 500 and 1,000 votes," a PKR insider said.
The BN, on the other hand, calculates that it has a chance to re-capture the seat as long as it can get 65 per cent of the Malay support as well as 60 per cent Indian, 30 per cent Chinese and 50 per cent Orang Asli support.
"If we can only obtain 60 per cent Malay support while we achieve the support level from other races, it will still be tough for us to capture the seat," a BN insider told Bernama.
An analysis of the 2008 Hulu Selangor parliamentary results showed that there was a swing to the Opposition in the Indian majority areas such as Ladang Kerling, Changkat Asa and Sungai Choh Barat.
The Chinese majority areas such as Kampung Baru Cina Kuala Kubu Baharu, Hulu Yam Lama, Hulu Yam Baharu also swung to the opposition.
Given the close nature of this race, Hulu Selangor will provide the testing ground for the MIC leadership and the newly-elected MCA leadership to deliver the non-Malay votes.
Some political observers believe that PKR picked Zaid because he is more acceptable to the non-Malay voters. But Zaid seems to be under "attack" over his past indulgences.
Still, opposition die-hards tend to ask: can PKR repeat its achievement of 2008 this time around? Nobody knows for sure. But PKR strategic director Tian Chua did say in jest in that "every time the party fields a local candidate, we lost, but when we put up a heavyweight candidate, we won."
On the other hand, political analyst Dr Sivamurugan Pandian feels that the BN needs quite some time to do damage control over the choice of its candidate because Kamalanathan was not on the radar screen until very recently.
Although many may perceive Kamalanathan as a "political lightweight", he is scoring and winning hearts and minds in rapid fashion with his affable personality. His humble background, lack of political baggage and his sincerity to serve makes a big difference to the rural voters of Hulu Selangor.
Physically, Kamalanathan may be lighter than Zaid but then again one cannot discount the possibility that the public relations practitioner may turn out to be a giant-killer on Sunday.
-- BERNAMA
HULU SELANGOR, April 21 (Bernama) -- Sunday's Hulu Selangor parliamentary by-election is expected to be another litmus test for both the Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat since the Bukit Gantang by-election last May. The stakes are indeed high for both parties.
For the BN, it would be a test of acceptance and acknowledgment of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak and his policies since he took office a year ago.
On the opposition's side, it will be a scrutiny of Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) after a series of high-profile defections from the party of late.
This by-election has been labelled as a contest between a PKR heavyweight in Datuk Zaid Ibrahim against a lightweight from MIC, P. Kamalanathan, who is the party's information chief.
If the PKR's present standing at the national stage is taken into consideration, then perhaps the "on the surface" prognosis may tend to favour Zaid.
But many argue that such an assessment is misplaced or misguided, especially with what PKR had undergone in the last two months when it experienced many desertions.
It is no wonder that DAP veteran Lim Kit Siang had even cautioned the PR parties against over-confidence, sternly reminding them not to dismiss the hard, cold facts from the 2008 general election.
Stressing that the April 25 by-election is not a "sure winner" for PR, he pointed out that the BN had lost the Hulu Selangor parliamentary seat by only a slim majority of 198 votes but had swept all the three state seats within the constituency with large majorities.
The BN took Hulu Bernam with a majority of 3,548 votes, Batang Kali 2,179 votes and Kuala Kubu Baru 448 votes.
In this respect, Lim wondered what had caused the collective majority of 6,175 votes for the BN in the three state seats to turn into a loss of 198 votes for the BN's parliamentary candidate, Datuk G. Palanivel.
The DAP political old-hand reasoned that it was clearly not because the 6,175 voters rooting for BN's state seats had suddenly decided to vote for PKR in the parliamentary contest as the total number of votes for PKR, at 23,388, was only 54 votes more than the total number of votes obtained by PR candidates in Hulu Bernam, Batang kali and Kuala Kubu Bharu, at 23,334 votes.
Lim also dismissed the likelihood of BN's 2008 loss in Hulu Selangor being due to spoilt votes as they numbered on1y 1,466 votes and this figure was not far from the total number of spoilt votes for the three state seats at 1,271 votes.
Palanivel secured 23,190 votes but this was 6,320 votes less than the total number of votes cast for the three BN candidates in the three state seats at 29,510 votes.
Lim said that clearly, more than 6,200 voters in the last general election who voted for the BN at the state level did not vote for Palanivel.
But what is significant is that these voters also did not vote for PR.
So the question is where did these more than 6,200 voters disappear to?
"If 2,000 or 3,000 of these voters come out to vote for the BN on April 25, the BN can win. Hence, all PKR, PAS and DAP leaders and campaigners should realise that the Hulu Selangor by-election is not a sure winner (for PR)," Lim said.
It would appear that Lim's arguments showed that the BN lost in Hulu Selangor in 2008 because the voters were unhappy with Palanivel and not so much the ticket that he had contested on.
Some political analysts also concur with Lim's point. It is also said that the BN would have won Hulu Selangor if not for the split votes, seen most notably among Malay voters since the BN won all the state seats in the parliamentary constituency.
Insiders from PKR's election machinery said that PKR needed to retain the seat was to maintain 45 per cent support from the Malays voters, 70 per cent votes of the Chinese, 50 per cent of the Indian votes and half of the Orang Asli votes.
"If this happens, we can retain the seat with a majority of between 500 and 1,000 votes," a PKR insider said.
The BN, on the other hand, calculates that it has a chance to re-capture the seat as long as it can get 65 per cent of the Malay support as well as 60 per cent Indian, 30 per cent Chinese and 50 per cent Orang Asli support.
"If we can only obtain 60 per cent Malay support while we achieve the support level from other races, it will still be tough for us to capture the seat," a BN insider told Bernama.
An analysis of the 2008 Hulu Selangor parliamentary results showed that there was a swing to the Opposition in the Indian majority areas such as Ladang Kerling, Changkat Asa and Sungai Choh Barat.
The Chinese majority areas such as Kampung Baru Cina Kuala Kubu Baharu, Hulu Yam Lama, Hulu Yam Baharu also swung to the opposition.
Given the close nature of this race, Hulu Selangor will provide the testing ground for the MIC leadership and the newly-elected MCA leadership to deliver the non-Malay votes.
Some political observers believe that PKR picked Zaid because he is more acceptable to the non-Malay voters. But Zaid seems to be under "attack" over his past indulgences.
Still, opposition die-hards tend to ask: can PKR repeat its achievement of 2008 this time around? Nobody knows for sure. But PKR strategic director Tian Chua did say in jest in that "every time the party fields a local candidate, we lost, but when we put up a heavyweight candidate, we won."
On the other hand, political analyst Dr Sivamurugan Pandian feels that the BN needs quite some time to do damage control over the choice of its candidate because Kamalanathan was not on the radar screen until very recently.
Although many may perceive Kamalanathan as a "political lightweight", he is scoring and winning hearts and minds in rapid fashion with his affable personality. His humble background, lack of political baggage and his sincerity to serve makes a big difference to the rural voters of Hulu Selangor.
Physically, Kamalanathan may be lighter than Zaid but then again one cannot discount the possibility that the public relations practitioner may turn out to be a giant-killer on Sunday.
-- BERNAMA
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